Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.455730 0.531465 0.613244 0.707795 0.813772 0.928561 1.061961
2025-03-23 0.344545 0.442528 0.556374 0.697227 0.865536 1.058901 1.296461
2025-03-30 0.243047 0.345408 0.473640 0.643338 0.859011 1.120827 1.459211
2025-04-06 0.176602 0.278755 0.416891 0.612196 0.875427 1.211729 1.666798
2025-04-13 0.125865 0.222471 0.364064 0.578208 0.884087 1.294589 1.874617
2025-04-20 0.095088 0.188175 0.335758 0.573597 0.931878 1.434332 2.171694
2025-04-27 0.069789 0.156088 0.304734 0.560341 0.966275 1.560396 2.464325
2025-05-04 0.052730 0.133507 0.284505 0.560737 1.021489 1.722535 2.824099
2025-05-11 0.039239 0.113383 0.264232 0.557856 1.071653 1.882983 3.197131
2025-05-18 0.026507 0.089723 0.231608 0.527640 1.073398 1.970023 3.469356
2025-05-25 0.016993 0.068940 0.198845 0.490573 1.058074 2.028380 3.702979
2025-06-01 0.011736 0.056721 0.181075 0.479299 1.087136 2.162313 4.067681
2025-06-08 0.007620 0.045362 0.162317 0.463749 1.109508 2.293135 4.448847
2025-06-15 0.005574 0.039910 0.157094 0.477403 1.191343 2.536851 5.039671
2025-06-22 0.003317 0.030911 0.138223 0.454909 1.197238 2.645708 5.411126
2025-06-29 0.002043 0.024936 0.125865 0.445531 1.229517 2.806848 5.887319
2025-07-06 0.001166 0.019582 0.112772 0.430822 1.248027 2.943945 6.331912
2025-07-13 0.000748 0.016745 0.107607 0.437001 1.315015 3.181518 6.975748
2025-07-20 0.000433 0.013782 0.100152 0.434564 1.361586 3.382826 7.566858
2025-07-27 0.000263 0.011835 0.096115 0.441862 1.433191 3.641645 8.283586
2025-08-03 0.000148 0.009986 0.091283 0.445376 1.496015 3.887651 8.991605
2025-08-10 0.000058 0.007476 0.080481 0.424962 1.493870 3.995687 9.439365
2025-08-17 0.000017 0.005293 0.068980 0.397655 1.468463 4.050503 9.785461